Food and agriculture systems foresight study: Implications for gender, poverty, and nutrition

Erin C Lentz

doi:10.1093/qopen/qoaa003

Abstract

Abstract This review evaluates foresight studies to understand how the future agri-food system may impact gender, poverty, and nutrition (GPN). Foresight studies agree that it will be challenging to transform the agri-food system into one that is sustainable, healthy, and just, although the degree to which foresight studies consider GPN is uneven. Foresight work with a GPN focus tends to assume that global coordination of policies and regulations is both necessary and possible in order to achieve improved GPN outcomes. However, history has shown that efforts to coordinate globally are mixed. At the same time, innovation-led studies pay less attention to barriers to equitable adoption and nutritional outcomes. Yet, the history of development has demonstrated the difficulties of equitable implementation of and access to new technological innovations, particularly for women and marginalized populations. I argue that mainstreaming GPN into foresight research can inform both policy-led and innovation-led pathways that support an improved agri-food system. The use of multisectoral and multilevel tools and analyses can support future foresight research and policymaking to systematically identify the net influences on and trade-offs among GPN and other factors.

Highlights

Agricultural and food systems in the 20 to 30 years will face substantial change
History to date has shown that efforts to coordinate globally have had mixed success; that is, relying on transformative global governance to lead agri-food system (AFS) change may be a risky strategy
Other foresight work considers the role of technology and improved management techniques in our future AFS

Summary

Executive Summary

The agricultural and food system (AFS) will face substantial change in the 20 to 30 years; numerous forces such as demographic waves, technological change, disease, climate change, and economic and political shifts will change what is grown by whom, how it reaches consumers, and which foods are consumed by whom. CGIAR has a long track record of addressing the challenge of transforming the AFS and is well positioned to continue to do so To inform both policy-led and innovation-led pathways, CGIAR can pursue a multitrack strategy through the following: (1) using systems thinking to incorporate gender, poverty, and nutrition into the design and implementation of CGIAR-led and -supported innovations, (2) supporting and advocating for the mainstreaming of GPN into the work of others, (3) integrating fit-for-purpose, regularly updated foresight work into decision-making, and (4) while acknowledging that global coordination may or may not be an achievable future outcome, providing policymakers with multisectoral and multilevel tools and analyses that systematically identify the net effects of AFS changes on GPN outcomes and the tradeoffs across One CGIAR impact areas

Introduction

Discussion

Findings

Conclusion

Background and Context