Follow-up after emergency laparotomy suggests high one- and five-year mortality with risk stratified by ASA.

Abstract

We investigated all-cause mortality following emergency laparotomy at 1 and 5 years. We aimed to establish a basis from which to advise patients and relatives on long-term mortality. Local data from a historical audit of emergency laparotomies from 2010 to 2012 were combined with National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) data from 2017 to 2020. Covariates collected included deprivation status, preoperative blood work, baseline renal function, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, operative time, anaesthetic time and gender. Associations between covariates and survival were determined using multivariate logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis. We used patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy between 2015 and 2020 as controls. ASA grade was the best discriminator of long-term outcome following laparotomy (n=894) but was not a predictor of survival following cholecystectomy (n=1,834), with mortality being significantly greater in the laparotomy group. Following cholecystectomy, 95% confidence intervals for survival at 5 years were 98-99%. Following laparotomy these intervals were: ASA grade 1, 79-96%; ASA grade 2, 69-82%; ASA grade 3, 44-58%; ASA grade 4, 33-48%; and ASA grade 5, 4-51%. The majority of deaths occurred after 30 days. Emergency laparotomy is associated with a significantly increased risk of death in the following 5 years. The risk is strongly correlated to ASA grade. Thirty-day mortality estimation is not a good basis on which to advise patients and carers on long-term outcomes. ASA grade can be used to predict long-term outcomes and to guide patient counsel.