Fog Prediction for Road Traffic Safety in a Coastal Desert Region

Abstract

Modern weather prediction models use relatively high grid resolutions as well as sophisticated parametrization schemes for microphysical and other subgrid-scale atmospheric processes. Nonetheless, with these models it remains a difficult task to perform successful numerical fog forecasts since many factors controlling a particular fog event are not yet sufficiently simulated. Here we describe our efforts to create a mechanism that produces successful predictions of fog in the territory located on the north coast of the Arabian Peninsula. Our approach consists in the coupling of the one-dimensional PAFOG fog model with the three-dimensional WRF 3.0 (Weather Research and Forecast) modelling system. The proposed method allows us to construct an efficient operative road traffic warning system for the occurrence of fog in the investigated region. In total 84 historical situations were studied during the period 2008–2009. Moreover, results of operative day-by-day fog forecasting during January and February 2010 are presented. For the investigated arid and hot climate region the land-sea breeze circulation seems to be the major factor affecting the diurnal variations of the meteorological conditions, frequently resulting in the formation of fog.