Fog in Sofia 2010–2019: Objective Circulation Classification and Fog Indices

Abstract

Low visibility caused by fog events can lead to disruption of every type of public transportation, and even loss of life. The focus of this study is the synoptic conditions associated with fog formation. The data used in this study was collected over the course of ten years (2010–2019) in Sofia, Bulgaria. The forecast skills of the Fog Stability Index (FSI) and the local Sofia Stability Index (SSI), as well as the relation between the Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) and fog from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), were tested. Both fog indices are used for fog nowcasting as their lead times are short and unclear. The Jenkinson–Collison Type method was used for extracting the predominant synoptic-scale pressure systems which provide suitable weather conditions for fog formation. Surface observations from two synoptic stations were used to calculate and evaluate the performance of the two fog indices and of the ground-based GNSS receiver for the IWV. The forecast skills provided by Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR), for both fog and no-fog periods, were obtained by discriminant analysis. Additionally, several weather parameters, such as surface wind speed, relative humidity and IWV, were added in order to improve the results of the local index (SSI). This led to a 77.9% hit rate. The cyclonic system influence and zonal flows from the west and the southwest are both responsible for a number of fog cases that are comparable to those associated with the anticyclonic system. The IWV was not found to improve the forecast skill of the fog indices. However, it was found that its values had a larger spread during no-fog periods in comparison to fog periods.