Fog forecasting using rule-based fuzzy inference system

Abstract

Operational meteorology is perceived as a fuzzy environment in which information is vaguely defined. The mesoscale processes such as fog, stratus and convection are generally dependent on the topography of the place and has always been difficult to forecast for the meteorologists. The main objective of the present study is to introduce the concept of fuzzy inference system (FIS) in the prediction of fog. This approach uses the concept of a pure fuzzy logic system where the fuzzy rule base consists of a collection of fuzzy IF-THEN rules. The fuzzy inference engine uses these fuzzy IF-THEN rules to determine a mapping from fuzzy sets in the input universe of discourse to fuzzy sets in the output universe of discourse based on fuzzy logic principles. Basic weather elements, which affect weather characteristics of fog, are fuzzified. These are then used in fuzzy weather prediction models based on fuzzy inferences. These models are simulated and the crisp results obtained using developed defuzzification strategies are compared with the actual weather data. The basis of methodology is to construct the fuzzy rule base domain from the available daily current weather observations in winter season over New Delhi. The results reveal that dew point spread and rate of change of dew point spread are the most important parameters for the formation of fog. The results further indicate that fog formation over New Delhi are dominant when (i) dew point is greater then 7°C along with dew point spread between 1 and 3°C. (ii) rate of change of dew point spread must be negative and wind speed should be less than 4 knots. This study presents a technique for predicting the probability of fog over New Delhi for 5–6 hours in advance. The skill score indicates that the performance of FIS is appreciably good. The method is found to be promising for operational application.