Foetal weight prediction models at a given gestational age in the absence of ultrasound facilities: application in Indonesia

Abstract

BackgroundBirth weight is one of the most important indicators of neonatal survival. A reliable estimate of foetal weight at different stages of pregnancy would facilitate intervention plans for medical practitioners to prevent the risk of low birth weight delivery. This study has developed reliable models to more accurately predict estimated foetal weight at a given gestation age in the absence of ultrasound facilities.MethodsA primary health care centre was involved in collecting retrospective non-identified Indonesian data. The best subset model selection criteria, coefficient of determination, standard deviation, variance inflation factor, Mallows Cp, and diagnostic tests of residuals were deployed to select the most significant independent variables. Simple and multivariate linear regressions were used to develop the proposed models. The efficacy of models for predicting foetal weight at a given gestational age was assessed using multi-prediction accuracy measures.ResultsFour weight prediction models based on fundal height and its combinations with gestational age (between 32 and 41 weeks) and ultrasonic estimates of foetal head circumference and foetal abdominal circumference have been developed. Multiple comparison criteria show that the proposed models were more accurate than the existing models (mean prediction errors between − 0.2 and 2.4 g and median absolute percentage errors between 4.1 and 4.2%) in predicting foetal weight at a given gestational age (between 35 and 41 weeks).ConclusionsThis research has developed models to more accurately predict estimated foetal weight at a given gestational age in the absence of ultrasound machines and trained ultra-sonographers. The efficacy of the models was assessed using retrospective data. The results show that the proposed models produced less error than the existing clinical and ultrasonic models. This research has resulted in the development of models where ultrasound facilities do not exist, to predict the estimated foetal weight at varying gestational age. This would promote the development of foetal inter growth charts, which are currently unavailable in Indonesian primary health care systems. Consistent monitoring of foetal growth would alleviate the risk of having inter growth abnormalities, such as low birth weight that is the most leading factor of neonatal mortality.