Fluctuations of answer and confidence rating in a general‐knowledge problem task: Is confidence rating a result of direct memory‐relevant output monitoring?

Abstract

In order to examine whether confidence rating is a result of direct memory‐relevant output monitoring, a general‐knowledge test was used. A question set was answered in experimental session 1, and the same question set was employed in session 2. Subjects chose one answer from two alternatives. No significant difference in answer accuracy was found between sessions, which suggests that identical information processing was carried out, and that any difference between sessions was based on probabilistic fluctuation. The major results were as follows: (a) In both sessions, answer accuracy was an increasing function of confidence. (b) Answer‐change rate (rate of different answers to the same question between sessions) decreased monotonically with confidence. (c) The distributions of confidence rating in session 2, conditional on the rating in session 1, were nearly identical in no‐answer‐change and answer‐change cases. These results suggest that confidence rating is not a result of monitoring memory‐relevant output itself but an estimation of possibility of answer fluctuation.