Fluctuations in influenza-like illness epidemics and suicide mortality: A time-series regression of 13-year mortality data in South Korea

Abstract

We explored the association between influenza epidemic and suicide mortality rates in a large population using a time-series regression of 13-year mortality data in South Korea. Weekly suicide mortalities and influenza-like illness (ILI) were analyzed using time series regression. Regression coefficient for suicide mortality based on percentage change of ILI was calculated using a quasi-Poisson regression. Non-linear distributed lag models with quadratic function up to 24 weeks were constructed. The association between ILI and suicide mortality increased significantly up to 8 weeks post-influenza diagnosis. A significant positive association between ILI and suicide mortality was observed from 2009, when a novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus provoked a worldwide pandemic. No meaningful association between these factors was observed before 2009. There was a significant positive relationship between ILI and suicide mortality after 2009, when a novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus provoked a worldwide pandemic.