Fluctuations et croissance économique en France (1820-1952)

Abstract

<i>Economic growth and fluctuations in France 1820-1952 </i> This study sets out to analyse the growth of the french economy over a period of 130 years by presenting, as far as available statistical material allows, continuous, or comparable time series. The major task has been to construct satisfactory indices for the pre-1914 period. The material already published by the I.S.E.A. has been used, but the author has endeavoured to give deflated total production figures. Various cross-checks have also been provided by the addition of the available statistical material for certain sectors of economic activity. In particular, time series on coal production and imports, iron and steel output and transports, both inland and maritime, have been constructed. The author considers two types of trend-production capacity and output. The concept of productive capacity is applied here for the first time to long-term trends derived from french pre-1914 data. Finally, the author considers the political implications of the fact that, down to 1913, and, to some extent until 1930, despite marked instability in output, increases in production were sufficient to give all social groups, in each generation, an increased real volume of consumption. On the contrary, from 1930 to 1952, an increase in total output was not available and, as a result, one social group could only increase its consumption at the expense of others.