Fluctuation and reform: A tale of two RMB markets

Abstract

The framework of “one currency, two markets” makes China’s currency market quite unique compared to its Western counterparts. In this study, we characterize the linkage between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates, and estimate the effect of the recent Renminbi market reforms against the backdrop of Renminbi internationalization. Using GARCH-type models, we find robust evidence of the volatility clustering phenomenon and the leverage effect in the pricing differential between the onshore and offshore exchange rates. We also find that the recent Renminbi currency market reforms all increase the volatility of the pricing differential between the two Renminbi markets, while these reforms are proved to either enlarge or shrink the pricing differential.