Florida: Too Close to Call, Again?!

Abstract

Florida is once again a key battleground state, with nearly 850,000 more voters and two more Electoral College votes than in 2000—but no more chads since punch card ballots have been outlawed. There are ten “givens” about the sunshine state, such as the key role that independents will play, a higher younger voter turnout rate, more citizens voting absentee or early, intense GOTV efforts by both parties, an intensely competitive U.S. Senate race, a series of constitutional amendments intended to draw out infrequent voters, and lawsuits before and after the election. The biggest “uncertains” are: what will be the most important vote-decision issue(s); turnout rates and candidate preferences among African Americans, Hispanics, social conservatives, and women; and whether there will be a terrorist attack before Election Day.