Flooding in Townsville, North Queensland, Australia, in February 2019 and Its Effects on Mosquito-Borne Diseases.

Adeshina I Adekunle,Kazi Mizanur Rahman,Oyelola A Adegboye

doi:10.3390/ijerph16081393

Abstract

In February 2019, a major flooding event occurred in Townsville, North Queensland, Australia. Here we present a prediction of the occurrence of mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) after the flooding. We used a mathematical modelling approach based on mosquito population abundance, survival, and size as well as current infectiousness to predict the changes in the occurrences of MBDs due to flooding in the study area. Based on 2019 year-to-date number of notifiable MBDs, we predicted an increase in number of cases, with a peak at 104 by one-half month after the flood receded. The findings in this study indicate that Townsville may see an upsurge in the cases of MBDs in the coming days. However, the burden of diseases will go down again if the mosquito control program being implemented by the City Council continues. As our predictions focus on the near future, longer term effects of flooding on the occurrence of mosquito-borne diseases need to be studied further.

Highlights

The major inundation that happened in the first week of February 2019 in Townsville resulting from heavy monsoonal rain and overflowing of the Ross River dam was unprecedented [1]
As the major mosquito-borne diseases are effectively controlled by the health and through sensitization of residents,of theresidents, spread ofthe thespread diseases underare control authorities and through sensitization ofare thekept diseases kept before under flooding control events and this is expected to continue after flooding events as well
We have used before flooding events and this is expected to continue after flooding events as well

Summary

Introduction

The major inundation that happened in the first week of February 2019 in Townsville resulting from heavy monsoonal rain and overflowing of the Ross River dam was unprecedented [1]. A large portion of the built areas in this North Queensland capital city of Australia was inundated, especially when the flooding reached its peak on the evening of 5 February 2019 after all the spillway gates of the. Ross River dam were opened, as the dam reached more than 200% of its capacity (see Figure 1 for total monthly rainfall since 1998). As the rainfall has stopped, the water level has subsided in the river, and the inundation has receded, the residents of the affected suburbs are gradually returning to their properties. This event may expose them to different health problems, including vector-borne diseases, especially those transmitted by mosquitoes. Public Health 2019, 16, 1393; doi:10.3390/ijerph16081393 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph

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