Abstract
Abstract. Recent studies have revealed evidence of trends in the median or mean flood discharge in Europe over the last 5 decades, with clear and coherent regional patterns. The aim of this study is to assess whether trends in flood discharges also occurred for larger return periods, accounting for the effect of catchment scale. We analyse 2370 flood discharge records, selected from a newly available pan-European flood database, with record length of at least 40 years over the period 1960–2010 and with contributing catchment area ranging from 5 to 100 000 km2. To estimate regional flood trends, we use a non-stationary regional flood frequency approach consisting of a regional Gumbel distribution, whose median and growth factor can vary in time with different strengths for different catchment sizes. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is used for parameter estimation. We quantify regional trends (and the related sample uncertainties), for floods of selected return periods and for selected catchment areas, across Europe and for three regions where coherent flood trends have been identified in previous studies. Results show that in northwestern Europe the trends in flood magnitude are generally positive. In small catchments (up to 100 km2), the 100-year flood increases more than the median flood, while the opposite is observed in medium and large catchments, where even some negative trends appear, especially in northwestern France. In southern Europe flood trends are generally negative. The 100-year flood decreases less than the median flood, and, in the small catchments, the median flood decreases less compared to the large catchments. In eastern Europe the regional trends are negative and do not depend on the return period, but catchment area plays a substantial role: the larger the catchment, the more negative the trend.
Highlights
Increasing flood hazard in Europe has become a major concern as a consequence of severe flood events experienced in the last decades, for instance the extreme floods that occurred in central Europe in 2002 (e.g. Ulbrich et al, 2003) and 2013 (e.g. Blöschl et al, 2013a), and the winter floods in northwest England in 2009 (e.g. Miller et al, 2013) and 2015/2016 (e.g. Barker et al, 2016)
To estimate regional flood trends, we use a non-stationary regional flood frequency approach consisting of a regional Gumbel distribution, whose median and growth factor can vary in time with different strengths for different catchment sizes
A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is used for parameter estimation
Summary
Increasing flood hazard in Europe has become a major concern as a consequence of severe flood events experienced in the last decades, for instance the extreme floods that occurred in central Europe in 2002 (e.g. Ulbrich et al, 2003) and 2013 (e.g. Blöschl et al, 2013a), and the winter floods in northwest England in 2009 (e.g. Miller et al, 2013) and 2015/2016 (e.g. Barker et al, 2016). A growing number of flood trend detection studies have been published in recent years. These studies typically analyse a large set of time series of flood peaks in a region and test them for the presence of significant gradual or abrupt changes in flood magnitude or frequency. Villarini et al (2011) tested flood time series of 55 stations in central Europe, with at least 75 years of data, for abrupt or gradual changes and found mostly abrupt changes associated with anthropogenic intervention (such as the construction of dams and reservoirs and river training). Mediero et al (2014) detected a general decreasing trend in the magnitude and frequency of floods in Spain, with the exception of the northwest. Mediero et al (2014) detected a general decreasing trend in the magnitude and frequency of floods in Spain, with the exception of the northwest. Prosdocimi et al (2014) investigated the presence of trends in annual and seasonal maxima of peak flows in the UK and found clusters
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