Flood susceptibility mapping leveraging open-source remote-sensing data and machine learning approaches in Nam Ngum River Basin (NNRB), Lao PDR

Abstract

Frequent floods caused by monsoons and rainstorms have significantly affected the resilience of human and natural ecosystems in the Nam Ngum River Basin, Lao PDR. A cost-efficient framework integrating advanced remote sensing and machine learning techniques is proposed to address this issue by enhancing flood susceptibility understanding and informed decision-making. This study utilizes remote sensing geo-datasets and machine learning algorithms (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Networks, and Long Short-Term Memory) to generate comprehensive flood susceptibility maps. The results highlight Random Forest’s superior performance, achieving the highest train and test Area Under the Curve of Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) (1.00 and 0.993), accuracy (0.957), F1-score (0.962), and kappa value (0.914), with the lowest mean squared error (0.207) and Root Mean Squared Error (0.043). Vulnerability is particularly pronounced in low-elevation and low-slope southern downstream areas (Central part of Lao PDR). The results reveal that 36%–53% of the basin’s total area is highly susceptible to flooding, emphasizing the dire need for coordinated floodplain management strategies. This research uses freely accessible remote sensing data, addresses data scarcity in flood studies, and provides valuable insights for disaster risk management and sustainable planning in Lao PDR.