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Abstract
Floods are natural disasters that often impact communities living in low-lying areas in the northern and central parts of Morocco. In this study, our aim was to create a flood susceptibility map using three methods; the hierarchy process (AHP) frequency ratio model (FR) and the weights of evidence (WoE) model. We extensively examined the area identified by these approaches using a hydraulic analysis software called HEC-RAS (version 6.3.1). Our analysis focused on the Essaouira watersheds in Morocco, where we identified around 197 flood locations. Out of these, we randomly selected 70% for modeling purposes while the remaining 30% were used for validation. Ten factors that influence floods were considered, such as slope, elevation, proximity to rivers, drainage density, stream order, land use patterns, rainfall data, lithology (permeability level) index (TWI), and curvature. We obtained these factors from data sources. Finally, we generated a flood susceptibility map and evaluated its accuracy by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). The validation results confirmed that all three models were robust and effective with an AUC of 90. Moreover, the research uncovered a trend of vulnerability with the most susceptible area being in close proximity to the city of Essaouira along the Oued Ksob. A detailed analysis using HEC-RAS was conducted at this identified location, pinpointing the village of Diabat as highly exposed. These findings hold significance for flood management, empowering decision makers, scholars, and urban planners to make informed choices and implement strategies that can minimize the impact of floods in susceptible regions while minimizing potential damages.
Highlights
IntroductionFloods are an occurrence that can have consequences for both people and property [1–3]
Floods are an occurrence that can have consequences for both people and property [1–3].They happen frequently and impact various aspects of the environment, including buildings, possessions, and even human lives [4–6]
This paper aims to: (i) provide an inventory of the flood records and marks; (ii) assess the role of flood conditioning factors; (iii) demarcate the critical locations to flooding in the Essaouira province by combining two geometric simulation techniques—(1) geo-spatial analysis, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model, frequency ratio (FR) model, and weights of evidence (WoE) model; and (2) the HEC-RAS hydraulic model in the Oued Ksob near the Moroccan city of Essaouira; and (iv) validate the produced susceptibility maps and identify the most accurate one
Summary
Floods are an occurrence that can have consequences for both people and property [1–3]. They happen frequently and impact various aspects of the environment, including buildings, possessions, and even human lives [4–6]. Floods account for 40% of all losses caused by natural disasters [7]. Urban areas are especially vulnerable to the effects of floods due to their population density and size [8]. Floods can be triggered by rainfall or melting snow, which overwhelm the drainage system and cause rivers to overflow their banks. This results in a surge of water downstream and at the watershed outlet leading to flash floods [6,9–11]
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