Flood season segmentation and scheme optimization in the Yellow River

Abstract

Abstract River flood season segmentation is a significant measure for flood prevention. This study aims to carry out theoretical analysis on flood season segmentation methods and put forward a framework for proper flood season segmentation through comparison between different segmentation methods. The studied framework consists of a Fisher optimal partition method for determining the optimum numbers of the sub-seasons, an ensemble approach for segmenting a defined flood season, and a nonparametric bootstrap combined with a fuzzy optimum selection method (NPB-FOS) for testing the rationality of the flood season staging schemes. The present research findings show that different methods could result in different staging schemes. It is proved through rational analysis that the staging scheme obtained by probability change point (PCP) is superior to others. The flood season of the downstream reach of the Yellow River can be segmented into three sub-seasons, i.e. early flood season (01 June–20 July), main flood season (21 July–28 September), and late flood season (29 September–08 November). The segmentation results of the flood season should play an active role in flood prevention.