Flood Risks Analysis in Upton Upon Severn: Assessing the Baseline Conditions and Future Scenarios for 100 and 1000-year Flood Events with a 2050 Climate Change Perspective.

Abstract

This paper investigates the flood risks in Upton upon Severn, a town in Worcestershire, England, which is prone to fluvial flooding from the River Severn. Historical events, such as the significant floods of 1947 and 2007, highlight the town’s vulnerability and underscore the importance of analysing current and future flood risks. This research uses a one-dimensional hydraulic model, using Flood Modeller and QGIS software, to assess baseline flood conditions and predict the potential impacts of severe and extreme flood events, including 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year flood scenarios. Additionally, it examines the projected effects of climate change by incorporating a 20% increase in flood risk estimates for the year 2050. The model results reveal that the baseline scenario poses limited flood risks, with only 17 properties affected, and key infrastructure like the A4104 road remains passable. However, under the 1 in 100-year event, approximately 336 properties are at risk, with significant road blockages and a flooded area of 5.09 Km2. The 1 in 1000-year flood scenario predicts a peak flow of 1807 m3/s, threatening more properties and covering a larger area of land. When climate change is factored into the 1 in 100-year scenario, the risks become similar to those of the 1 in 1000-year event, with 500 properties and key infrastructure, including the fire station and primary school, at risk and the A4104 road becoming impassable. These findings provide vital insights for flood risk management, especially given the possible effects of climate change, and stress the need for long-term solutions to flooding.