Flood-risk mapping for storm surge and tsunami at Cocos Bay (Manzanilla), Trinidad

Abstract

Cocos Bay is a barrier beach under threat of marine erosion from the high energy environment of the Atlantic Ocean. This barrier beach borders the Ramsar listed Nariva Swamp, and helps maintain its delicate wetland ecosystem, however, ongoing coastal erosion at this beach threatens the longevity of this freshwater wetland. Due to the geographical location of Cocos Bay being exposed to Atlantic generated storm events and the low relief of the study area, there is a potential threat of storm surges breaching the barrier beach. Owing to the geological setting of the region (located in an active seismic province with earthquakes, volcanicity and landslides), there also exists the threat of tsunamis. This paper is a GIS simulation of the area extent of inundation and the affected infrastructure from such events. It utilizes a DEM and land-use to quantifying inundation areas, and the extent of vulnerability of various elements. The low relief of the barrier beach renders the area extremely vulnerable from events that trigger sea level increases. Simulations revealed that as little as a 1 m storm surge has the potential to disrupt the Nariva Swamp and threaten coastal infrastructure while higher storm surges and tsunamis have the potential to decimate the entire area. The flood-risk model generated indicates a very high vulnerability to storm surges, along the entire length of the coastline. These results have implications for future development and sustainable management of this ecologically sensitive area.