Flood risk mapping and analysis using an integrated framework of machine learning models and analytic hierarchy process.

Abstract

In this study, a new approach of machine learning (ML) models integrated with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was proposed to develop a holistic flood risk assessment map. Flood susceptibility maps were created using ML techniques. AHP was utilized to combine flood vulnerability and exposure criteria. We selected Quang Binh province of Vietnam as a case study and collected available data, including 696 flooding locations of historical flooding events in 2007, 2010, 2016, and 2020; and flood influencing factors of elevation, slope, curvature, flow direction, flow accumulation, distance from river, river density, land cover, geology, and rainfall. These data were used to construct training and testing datasets. The susceptibility models were validated and compared using statistical techniques. An integrated flood risk assessment framework was proposed to incorporate flood hazard (flood susceptibility), flood exposure (distance from river, land use, population density, and rainfall), and flood vulnerability (poverty rate, number of freshwater stations, road density, number of schools, and healthcare facilities). Model validation suggested that deep learning has the best performance of AUC=0.984 compared with other ensemble models of MultiBoostAB Ensemble (0.958), Random SubSpace Ensemble (0.962), and credal decision tree (AUC=0.918). The final flood risk map shows 5075ha (0.63%) in extremely high risk, 47,955ha (5.95%) in high-risk, 40,460ha (5.02%) in medium risk, 431,908ha (53.55%) in low risk areas, and 281,127ha (34.86%) in very low risk. The present study highlights that the integration of ML models and AHP is a promising framework for mapping flood risks in flood-prone areas.