Flood risk assessment of Wuhan, China, using a multi-criteria analysis model with the improved AHP-Entropy method.

Abstract

Floods are one of the most frequent global natural hazards resulting in significant human and economic losses. Therefore, assessing and mapping flood hazard levels is essential to reduce the severity of future flood disasters. This study developed an integrated methodology to evaluate flood risk using an improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Entropy Weight (AHP-EW) method based on cosine similarity (COS-AHP-EW). This method has more scientific results because it combines subjective and objective information. The proposed method's viability was then tested in Wuhan, China. Fourteen flood-inducing indicators were identified for the flood hazard, vulnerability, and restorability index system, with the indicator weights calculated using the COS-AHP-EW. This study utilized the Jenks method to develop the Wuhan flood risk map. We observed that the very high risk and high-risk areas covered 2.43% and 11.54% of the total study area and were mainly distributed in the highest economic and urbanization development and low-permeability districts, respectively. The validation with the historical waterlogging points reflected the accuracy and reliability of the COS-AHP-EW. The superiority of the proposed method was further verified by comparing it with single-evaluation methods (AHP and Entropy Weight) and another combined weight method (combined AHP-EW based on ideal point theory, namely, Ideal-AHP-EW). The comparison results indicated that the COS-AHP-EW was more accurate at predicting the risk in flood-prone area. Flood risk maps generated using the COS-AHP-EW could be applied to improve flood risk assessments, and the proposed method could be extended to other study areas to provide reliable flood management information.