Flood Risk Assessment and Management in Urban Communities: The Case of Communities in Wuhan

Abstract

The likelihood and uncertainty of severe rains and flooding in the middle basin of the Yangtze River have grown due to global warming and growing urbanization. A flood risk assessment index system is built based on resilience theory to assess community flood risk in a significantly changing environment, with communities serving as the primary body to manage flood risk in cities. The flood risk level of communities in Wuhan from 2011 to 2020 was assessed using the Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Dempster–Shafer (DS) evidence theory, utilizing an example of the typical Wuhan community. The findings indicate that: (1) The weight of hazard-causing factors is the largest and has the greatest influence on the risk of flooding in the community. (2) When looking at time series, the risk of hazard-causing factors gradually rises, while the risks associated with systemic governance, protective works, and community vulnerability steadily decline. Building resilient communities and enhancing flood risk management capability should be priorities for the government, local communities, and citizens.