Abstract
In recent decades, multiple flood events have had a devastating impact on soybean production in Argentina. Recent advances suggest that the frequency and intensity of destructive flood events on the Argentinian Pampas will increase under pressure from climate change. This paper provides bottom-up insight into the flood risk for soybean production systems under climate change and the suitability of adaptation strategies in two of the most flood-prone areas of the Pampas region. The flood risk perceptions of soybean producers were explored through interviews, translated into climatic indicators and then studied using a multi-model climate data analysis. Soybean producers perceived the present flood risk for rural accessibility to be of the highest concern, especially during the harvest and sowing seasons when heavy machinery needs to reach soybean lots. An analysis of climatic change projections found a rising trend in annual and harvest precipitation and a slight drying trend during the sowing season. This indicates that the flood risk for harvest accessibility may increase under climate change. Several adaptation strategies were identified that can systemically address flood risks, but these require collaborative action and cannot be undertaken by individual producers. The results suggest that if cooperative adaptation efforts are not made in the short term, the continued increase in flood risk may force soybean producers in the case study locations to shift away from soybean towards more robust land uses.
Highlights
Since the 1970s, soybean production in Argentina has experienced stark growth
This paper provides bottom-up insight into the flood risk for soybean production systems under climate change and the suitability of adaptation strategies in two of the most flood-prone areas of the Pampas region
The results suggest that if cooperative adaptation efforts are not made in the short term, the continued increase in flood risk may force soybean producers in the case study locations to shift away from soybean towards more robust land uses
Summary
Since the 1970s, soybean production in Argentina has experienced stark growth. In less than half a century, the production of soybean increased from several hundred thousand tons to almost 60 million metric tons per year and it has become the dominant crop in Argentina [1]. As of 2017, the country accounted for roughly 20% of the global soybean production [2]. The wider Argentinian soybean sector has developed in recent decades into an export-oriented production and processing complex. The export value of the total soybean chain is most recently estimated at US $17 billion [5] and accounts for 5.5% of the national GDP [6]. The soybean sector is an important pillar of the Argentinian national economy
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