Flood impacts on global crop production: advances and limitations

Abstract

Considering the anticipated rise in wet extremes due to climate change, effective management of flood risks in global agriculture necessitates an initial assessment of the impact of floods on crop production. Such estimation can inform the development of strategies to enhance the resilience of the global agricultural system against floods, particularly in the face of growing demand for food. To this end, a worldwide calculation of inundation areas’ return periods was conducted using a global river and inundation model output. This information was then linked to a global historical yield map, allowing for the identification of flood-induced crop yield changes. The findings revealed that for return periods over ten years, global average yield losses were estimated to be 4% for soy, 3% for rice, 2% for wheat, and 1% for maize. These losses amounted to a total production loss of 5.5 billion United States dollars during the 1982–2016 period. This first global estimation of flood impacts on crop production contributes to the advancement of flood risk management in agriculture, although the limitations identified in this study need to be addressed in future research.