Abstract
Abstract. Possible effects of climate change on floods magnitude and effects are discussed in this document based on existing data and projected changes in precipitation until 2099. This methodology is applied to Matucana Village, which suffers the effects of floods and debris flows. First, historical peak precipitation, fitted to Gumbel distribution, was used, After that, percentage projected changes of precipitation were used to obtain the new mean precipitation to each period 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099; these mean precipitations define a new Gumbel distribution for every time period. Then, projected maximal precipitations to 100 years of return period are estimated and the corresponding peak flow hydrographs were built. Finally, hazard maps are plotted. This application is possible because Matucana is located in a climatologically homogeneous basin. The final results suggest an important increase in magnitude and affected area by floods in the next 90 years under the A1FI emission scenario.
Highlights
Matucana village is located on the left bank of the Rimac River around 2375 m a.s.l. in the Western Chain of Central Peruvian Andes
According to Cabrera and Castillo (2014) the possible effects of climate change are neglected in these ravines because they do not significantly add to their debris flow production
Climate change could produce increases of 2.32% in maximal precipitation to 100 years of return period. This corresponds to an increment of 5.37% in peak flows to the same return period
Summary
Matucana village is located on the left bank of the Rimac River around 2375 m a.s.l. in the Western Chain of Central Peruvian Andes. In this zone there are two Rimac River tributary streams which impact on urban areas: Chucumayo and Paihua ravine. The secondary effect is more important: Paihua ravine could dam water of the Rimac River and produce floods on Matucana. This situation suggests the necessity of quantifying these possible effects and recognizes the possible hazard zones and reorganizing and preparing mitigation plans
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