Flood hazard assessment in the Kujukuri Plain of Chiba Prefecture, Japan, based on GIS and multicriteria decision analysis

Abstract

A simple flood hazard assessment based on GIS and multicriteria decision analysis was presented, and the sensitivity analysis was applied to evaluate the uncertainty of input factors. The location chosen for the study is the Kujukuri Plain, Chiba Prefecture, Japan. The model incorporates six factors: river system, elevation, depression area, ratio of impermeable area, detention ponds, and precipitation. A hazard map for the year 2004, as an example, was obtained. The method of analytic hierarchy process was applied to calculate the weighting values of each factor. The hazard map was compared with the actual flood area, and good coincidence was found between them. The relative importance and uncertainty of the six input factors and weights were evaluated by using the global sensitivity analysis, i.e., extended FAST method, and the results showed a robust behavior of the model. The flood hazard assessment method presented here is meaningful for the flood management and environment protection in the area under the similar condition as this study.