Abstract
Flood hazard assessment and mapping is challenging in semi-arid ungauged basins because of the lack of data, the rapid runoff response, climatic variability, and the difficulties of modelling hydraulic processes, such as on piedmont alluvial fans. This study combines hydrological and hydraulic modelling with hydro-geomorphic knowledge gathered during post-flood campaigns in order to determine realistic flood hazard scenarios for a piedmont urban area in Morocco. Partial calibration of the hydrological and hydraulic models is performed using field-estimated peak discharge values and mapped flood extents for known flood events. The calibrated models are then applied to lower frequency–higher magnitude flood scenarios. Finally, a flood hazard map is designed using the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping procedures.
Highlights
Climatic scenarios suggest that Mediterranean climates are tending towards increased aridity and higher inter- and intra-annual rainfall variability, resulting in more frequent extreme events (Giorgi and Lionello 2008; IPCC 2012)
This study combines hydrological and hydraulic modelling with hydro-geomorphic knowledge gathered during post-flood campaigns in order to determine realistic flood hazard scenarios for a piedmont urban area in Morocco
Flood hazard assessment may be challenging in semi-arid piedmont areas requiring the use of methodologies and techniques uncommon to most hazard assessment studies (Vincent et al 2004; House 2005)
Summary
Climatic scenarios suggest that Mediterranean climates are tending towards increased aridity and higher inter- and intra-annual rainfall variability, resulting in more frequent extreme events (Giorgi and Lionello 2008; IPCC 2012). Nat Hazards (2016) 81:481–511 induced rainfall events (UNDP 2006; Saıdi et al 2010) Actions are required both to avoid urban development in flood-prone areas and to adapt existing and planned development to future climate change. Hydrological and hydraulic models are essential when assessing flood hazard for planning-relevant scenarios. Flood hazard scenarios that are relevant for land use management and planning relate to flood events with a relatively high return period (e.g. 20 to 100 years). Predicting such infrequent events in conditions of scarce data and high rainfall variability can result in high model uncertainty
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