Flood Frequency Analysis at Ungauged Sites Based on Regionally Estimated Streamflows

Abstract

Abstract Estimation of flood events at ungauged sites is often performed through regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA). RFFA uses the available information at gauged sites to estimate the desired design events at the ungauged site. These regional methods are based on a prior aggregation of the hydrological information at the gauged sites, which implies loss of information. In the present study, a different approach or path for conducting RFFA is presented. First, the daily streamflow series at the ungauged site is regionally estimated from daily information at the gauged sites through a regional flow duration curve approach. Then, a local flood frequency analysis is performed on the extracted maximum peak flow series. The proposed approach, referred to as regional streamflow-based frequency analysis (RSBFA), is applied to a case study in the province of Quebec, Canada. Results indicate that the performance of the RSBFA approach is comparable to traditional methods. However, the proposed method has the advantages of being simple, flexible, and of providing the whole daily streamflow series at the ungauged site, which allows the direct estimation of a large number of other flow characteristics, such as low-flow features. The RSBFA approach also avoids performing a complete at-site flood frequency analysis at each gauged site. The fact that all the regional information is included in the regionally estimated daily streamflow series implies a number of benefits: annual or seasonal, absolute or specific, stationary or nonstationary, and univariate or multivariate flood quantiles corresponding to any return period may then be obtained through the estimated series without reconducting a regional analysis.