Flood forecasting using a coupled hydrological and hydraulic model (based on FVM) and highresolution meteorological model

Marcos Sanz-Ramos,Ernest Bladé,Arnau Amengual,Hélène Roux,Romu Romero,A Paquier,N Rivière

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/20184006028

Abstract

A forecasting systems based on the coupling of meteorological, hydrologic, hydraulic and risk models is used to minimize the risks associated to water scarcity and flooding. The fulfilment of such complex forecasting chains can allow obtaining information of the most plausible scenarios of water and risk management up to 96 hours ahead. In the present work, flood forecasting was carried out for different events in the upper La Muga basin (including the reservoir), within the European project “Flood Risk Assessment and Management in the Pyrenees” (http://pgriepm. eu/). The main purpose of the project was to develop a method to optimize the management of flood scenarios in order to minimize the flood risk while maximizing the water resources. The good fit of all the models, obtaining the forecasting rainfall and converting the overland flow in water levels in the reservoir, can give tools and important information to the authorities or dam managers for suitable management during the extreme rainfall and flood events.

Highlights

The implementation of real-time forecasting systems based on the coupling of meteorological, hydrologic, hydraulic and risk models is paramount over the topographically complex Spanish Mediterranean region
quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) have been provided by the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model [10]
QPFs were compared against rain gauge and radar observations data from Servei Meteorologic de Catalunya (SMC)

Summary

Introduction

The implementation of real-time forecasting systems based on the coupling of meteorological, hydrologic, hydraulic and risk models is paramount over the topographically complex Spanish Mediterranean region. New strategies for the optimized management of water resources are needed in order to minimize the risks associated to water scarcity and flooding. The fulfilment of such complex forecasting chains can allow obtaining information of the most plausible scenarios of water and risk management up to 96 hours ahead. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models render quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) that capture realistically the initialization and subsequent development of convective precipitation systems. These structures are related to small-scale dynamics and are strongly modulated by local orography [1,2]. Three processes are involved in the whole modelling chain

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Conclusion