Flood disaster risk perception and evacuation willingness of urban households: The case of Accra, Ghana

Abstract

Flooding is Ghana's most occurrent natural disaster, with Accra, the capital city and central economic hub experiencing the highest flood incidence and the effects on lives and properties. With the increasing trend of data on rainfall above 20 mm (heavy rain) in Accra from 1980 to 2020, a high possibility of future flood hazards has been projected, with the frequency and intensity of flood occurrences expected to increase. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the flood disaster risk perception of urban households in Accra and how it influences their willingness to leave the flood-prone zone. The multinomial probit model was used to analyze the evacuation willingness of households, and binary logit and probit models were also used to test the robustness of the estimates. The results indicate that the odds of being flood risk lovers are found to be decreased by the number of years of formal education, gender, household level of income, physical mobility, costs incurred from previous floods, probability and severity of future floods, and perception about taxing building in flood zones. The odds of being flood risk lovers are increased by household duration in the flood zone, size of household, the experience of past flood occurrences, close distance to work, and residence close to Odaw river/Korle lagoon. The study suggests that policies should target increasing public awareness of flood risks, providing affordable housing for residents, banning new settlements on flood-prone zones, and building infrastructure to mitigate flood risks.