Abstract
South of the Sahara, flood vulnerability and risk assessments at local level rarely identify the exposed areas according to the probability of flooding or the actions in place, or localize the exposed items. They are, therefore, of little use for local development, risk prevention, and contingency planning. The aim of this article is to assess the flood risk, providing useful information for local planning and an assessment methodology useful for other case studies. As a result, the first step involves identifying the information required by the local plans most used south of the Sahara. Four rural communities in Niger, frequently flooded by the Sirba River, are then considered. The risk is the product of the probability of a flood multiplied by the potential damage. Local knowledge and knowledge derived from a hydraulic numerical model, digital terrain model, very high resolution multispectral orthoimages, and daily precipitation are used. The assessment identifies the probability of fluvial and pluvial flooding, the exposed areas, the position, quantity, type, replacement value of exposed items, and the risk level according to three flooding scenarios. Fifteen actions are suggested to reduce the risk and to turn adversity into opportunity.
Highlights
In the first decade of this century, floods have struck 11.5 million people south of the Sahara [1]
Aligning Flood Risk Assessments with Local Plans Requirements The reduction of the hydro-climatic risk in Niger is essentially entrusted to the municipal development plan (MDP)
Exceptions aside, the flood vulnerability and risk assessments considered in the systematic review are deficient in identifying the flood-prone area according to the frequency of the flood and critical rain, the exposed items, and the ongoing actions and they are, of little use for MDPs and, prospectively, for risk prevention and contingency plans at local level [14]
Summary
In the first decade of this century, floods have struck 11.5 million people south of the Sahara [1]. Between 2013 and 2017, official development aid spent just 0.1 million Euros on this activity against 12.4 billion Euros used for disaster risk reduction in the Subcontinent [3]. Various multilateral organizations have urged or are supporting the preparation of local disaster risk reduction and contingency plans [4,5]. The scientific community has been engaged above all in flood vulnerability and risk assessments, important activities which are, difficult to coordinate with local planning. The community-based approach used in many assessments has not produced the quantitative information expected by planning [11] and seems inadequate to appreciate the risks caused by climatic changes that communities have not yet experienced [12]. No assessment considers the opportunities offered by floods for sustainable rural development
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