Abstract
Abstract. Estuaries are coastal systems particularly vulnerable to climate change. Within these systems, agriculture is one of the most potentially affected sectors. This paper proposes a risk assessment approach for helping the decision-making process at a local level, addressing two risks that affect agricultural areas located in estuarine margins: the unavailability of freshwater for irrigation resulting from the upstream propagation of estuarine brackish water during droughts and land inundation by high water levels associated with high tides and storm surges. For each risk, quantitative consequence descriptors are proposed to support risk level determination and evaluation through a continuous consequence–probability diagram. The approach applicability is discussed through its application to the Lezíria Grande de Vila Franca de Xira, located in the Tagus Estuary (Portugal). Results indicate that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk. Examples of risk control measures for the risks addressed are presented. The main strengths of the proposed approach are its flexibility to be adapted to local conditions and updated through time, as well as the ease of its application by the risk owner.
Highlights
Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most vulnerable to climate change effects (Gornall et al, 2010; Burke and Emerick, 2016; Thornton et al, 2018)
The Lezíria Grande de Vila Franca de Xira Public Irrigation Perimeter (Lezíria Grande) is an important economic agricultural area located on the Tagus estuarine eastern margin, about 40 km from the estuarine mouth (Fig. 2b)
The risk assessment approach proposed in this study is intended to integrate the hazard dimensions that most affect agricultural areas located in estuarine margins
Summary
Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most vulnerable to climate change effects (Gornall et al, 2010; Burke and Emerick, 2016; Thornton et al, 2018). Risk assessment outcomes support the design of risk mitigation measures, their implementation and their effectiveness assessment While this framework is useful to guide the applications throughout the risk management process, it remains very generic. Approaches addressing challenges that climate change will bring to the agricultural areas located in estuarine margins and suitable to support local decision-makers to manage risk remain to be developed. The present study aims at developing a risk assessment approach considering two natural risks that affect agricultural estuarine lowlands: the scarcity of freshwater for irrigation and the marine submersion. Both phenomena are not new, but they are exacerbated by climate change through more frequent and intense droughts, increasing storminess, and sea level rise.
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