Flight Safety Assessment Based on a Modified Human Reliability Quantification Method

Yundong Guo,Youchao Sun,Zongpeng Wang,Xiufang Yang

doi:10.1155/2019/2812173

Abstract

Human error is one of the most important risk factors affecting aviation safety. The original Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) developed for the nuclear industry is reliable for human reliability quantification, but it is not fully applicable to human reliability analysis in aviation because it neglects the characteristics of long-duration flights. Here, we propose a modified CREAM method to predict human error probability in flight and provide some improvement measures for critical operations. A set of performance influencing factors (PIFs), such as flight procedures and ground support, is established to reflect operational scenarios in flight. Then, we develop the expected affect index of PIFs and the Scenario Influence Index to construct a quantitative model of human reliability. The probability of human error for each operation in the approach and landing phases is obtained with the modified CREAM method, and the results indicate that the most important cognitive function that influences human reliability is missed action. The proposed method may be a suitable tool for human reliability quantification in aviation considering long-duration flights. The method also has great practical significance for improving flight safety.

Highlights

With the continuous emergence of advanced avionics technology and the increase in the reliability of onboard equipment, the aviation accident rate related to the electromechanical systems of aircraft has sharply decreased in recent decades [1, 2]
The classification scheme describing the causes of erroneous actions in the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) framework is mainly applicable for nuclear power plants and is difficult to directly apply to other domains
To demonstrate the validity of the proposed method, the quantitative results based on the modified CREAM method are compared with the results obtained with the HEART approach

Summary

Introduction

With the continuous emergence of advanced avionics technology and the increase in the reliability of onboard equipment, the aviation accident rate related to the electromechanical systems of aircraft has sharply decreased in recent decades [1, 2]. The Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) was first developed by Hollnagel for human reliability analysis in the nuclear power industry [5]. This method can be utilized to proactively predict potential human error and retroactively quantify human error. The classification scheme can be utilized to anticipate and describe how potential human errors occur This method defines the relation between the consequences of the error and the causes. The classification scheme describing the causes of erroneous actions in the CREAM framework is mainly applicable for nuclear power plants and is difficult to directly apply to other domains. CREAM does not offer reasonable recommendations for reducing the occurrence of errors and is complicated to apply

Methods

Results

Conclusion