Flight plan for the future: floatplane pilots and researchers team up to predict invasive species dispersal in Alaska

Tobias Schwoerer,John M Morton,Joseph M Little,Roman J Dial,Aaron E Martin,Jennifer I Schmidt,Eric J Ward

doi:10.1007/s10530-021-02712-3

Abstract

Aircraft can transport aquatic invasive species (AIS) from urban sources to remote waterbodies, yet little is known about this long-distance pathway. In North America and especially Alaska, aircraft with landing gear for water called floatplanes are used for recreation access to remote, often road-less wilderness destinations. Human-mediated dispersal of AIS is particularly concerning for the conservation of pristine wildlands, yet resource managers are often challenged by limited monitoring and response capacity given the vast areas they manage. We collected pathway data through a survey with floatplane pilots and used a Bayesian hierarchical model to inform early detection in a data-limited situation. The study was motivated by Alaska’s first known AIS, Elodea spp. (Elodea) and its floatplane-related dispersal. For 682 identified floatplane destinations, a Bayesian hierarchical model predicts the chance of flights originating from AIS source locations in freshwater and estimates the expected number of flights from these sources. Model predictions show the potential for broad spread across remote regions currently not known to have Elodea and informed monitoring and early detection efforts. Our result underlines the small window of opportunity for Arctic conservation strategies targeting an AIS free Arctic. We recommend management that focuses on long-distance connectivity, keeping urban sources free of AIS. We discuss applicability of the approach for other data-limited situations supporting data-informed AIS management responses.

Highlights

Protecting wilderness ecosystems from biological invasion requires data-driven decisions, often made possible through a participating public (Auffret and Cousins 2013; Bullock et al 2018; Encarnacao et al 2021; Runghen et al 2021)
Materials and methods Sample excluded floatplane pilots and charter businesses located in Southeast Alaska and the Aleutian Islands where regional operations in marine waters reduce the risk of Elodea transmission
Due to the presence of natural and other human pathways, these infestations could become aquatic invasive species (AIS) sources for waterbodies used by floatplanes

Summary

Introduction

Protecting wilderness ecosystems from biological invasion requires data-driven decisions, often made possible through a participating public (Auffret and Cousins 2013; Bullock et al 2018; Encarnacao et al 2021; Runghen et al 2021). Too often the global and local processes that drive fast-paced environmental change in Earth’s remotest regions remain largely unexplored (Huntington et al 2020) This data scarcity is most symptomatic where large tracts of natural environment remain (Gaulke et al 2019). Remoteness and the associated high cost of monitoring and data collection can lead to additional management challenges (Schwoerer et al 2021). These management challenges are exacerbated when the invader is difficult to detect and more likely to be established before detection, as is often the case with aquatic invasive species (AIS) (Sytsma and Pennington 2015). In as yet undisturbed wilderness areas, a better understanding of human travel patterns as pathways for invasive species is essential for effective early detection and eradication (McGeoch et al 2016; Runghen et al 2021)

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