Flexible renewable energy planning based on multi-step forecasting of interregional electricity supply and demand: Graph-enhanced AI approach

Abstract

Jeju Island faces curtailment problems when renewable energy generation exceeds the facility capacity. In addition, the renewable energy system cannot achieve consistent operation because of the uncertainty of renewable energy sources (RES) and their complex spatiotemporal patterns. Climate change and extreme meteorological phenomena also affect the energy system of the island. Therefore, it is essential to maximize RES exploitation to accomplish carbon-free energy production. This study developed a rolling horizon optimization–based flexible renewable energy distribution planning (FxRE-Plan) based on an artificial intelligence-driven spatiotemporal RES prediction model. An adaptive graph convolutional recurrent network (AGCRN) was used to develop a spatiotemporal prediction model. Then, FxRE-Plan was determined using a multiobjective genetic algorithm to maximize the RES potential under climate change scenarios. The FxRE-Plan was evaluated and compared with the current operation of the electric grid in Jeju Island through economic, environmental cost, and climate change vulnerability assessment index. The results of this research show that the AGCRN–based spatiotemporal prediction model exhibited superior prediction performance, achieving a 95% R2. In addition, the FxRE-Plan reduced greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 11.5% at maximum and climate change vulnerability. Hence, the proposed FxRE-Plan can be used to solve curtailments in real electric grids by pursuing carbon-free islands.