Abstract
The development of renewable energy represented by wind, photovoltaic and hydropower has increased the uncertainty of power systems. In order to ensure the flexible operation of power systems with a high proportion of renewable energy, it is necessary to establish a multi-scenario power system flexibility evaluation method. First, this study uses a modified k-means algorithm to cluster operating scenarios of renewable energy and load to obtain several typical scenarios. Then, flexibility evaluation indices are proposed from three perspectives, including supply and demand balance of the zone, power flow distribution of the zone and transmission capacity between zones. Next, to calculate the flexibility evaluation indices of each scenario—and according to the occurrence probability of each scenario—we multiplied the indices of each scenario by the scenario occurrence probability to obtain comprehensive evaluation indices of all scenarios. Based on the actual historical output data of renewable energy and load of a southern power system in China, a flexibility evaluation was performed on the modified IEEE 14 system and modified IEEE 39 system. The results show that the proposed clustering method and flexibility indices can effectively reflect the flexibility status of the power system.
Highlights
In recent years, the development of renewable energy in China has accelerated
Based on the actual historical output data of renewable energy and load of a southern power system in China, the flexibility evaluation was performed on the modified IEEE 14 system and the modified IEEE 39 system, which demonstrates the rationality of the proposed clustering method and flexibility indices
Using the optimal clustering number k as the input parameter of the k-means, we use the clustering method to perform unified scenario clustering on the power output operating scenarios and obtain the typical operating scenarios of the power supply
Summary
The development of renewable energy in China has accelerated. Hydropower installed capacity has continued to increase, while wind power and photovoltaic power installed capacity have ranked first in the world. Reference [10] considers the multi-time-scale fluctuation characteristics of renewable energy power generation and proposes a morphology-based solution of power system flexibility evaluation index and its calculation method. Propose flexibility evaluation indices from three perspectives: supply and demand balance in the zone, power flow distribution within the zone and transmission capacity between different zones. The proposed indices take the power demand and supply balance, the power flow distribution and interregional transmission capacity into account, which comprehensively characterizes the power system flexibility. Based on the actual historical output data of renewable energy and load of a southern power system in China, the flexibility evaluation was performed on the modified IEEE 14 system and the modified IEEE 39 system, which demonstrates the rationality of the proposed clustering method and flexibility indices
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