Flexibility-constraint integrated resource planning framework considering demand and supply side uncertainties with high dimensional dependencies

Abstract

The propensity to utilization of inexpensive, clean and distributed energy resources in the today's power systems structure are expanding due to various economic, political and sociological reasons. However, the power generated by these resources is extremely unpredictable, which is called uncertainty and exceptionally fluctuated drastically that is known as variability, during the operation epoch. So, exposure to these two features is great significance and value. This problem is known as the power system flexibility in the literature of electrical power system studies. Promoting flexibility in the system is too expensive and can be evaluated in different time frames. This paper studies the power system flexibility with the presence of uncertainty and variability of demand and supply side resources in a planning timeframe. This paper proposed an improved method for demand response uncertainty modeling with Z-number. This method is a hybrid possibilistic and probabilistic process. Furthermore, this paper applied an approved method for renewable generation uncertainty modeling with Monte Carlo. The scrutinies show, the most cost-effective way to consider the flexibility is planning timeframe, so this study proposed a novel paradigm for Flexibility-Constrained Integrated resource planning in presence of high penetration uncertain and variable demand-side and supply-side resources namely as FCIRPU/V-DSRs. The simulations are implemented with the proposed FCIRPU/V-DSRs methodology on a test system. The results show that this innovative framework provides a significant improvement in the power system flexibility at an inferior cost than other investigated methods.