Abstract
This study proposes an evaluation method for variable generation (VG) acceptability with an adequate level of power system flexibility. In this method, a risk index referred to as the ramping capability shortage expectation (RSE) is used to quantify flexibility. The RSE value of the current power system is selected as the adequate level of flexibility (i.e., RSE criterion). VG acceptability is represented by the VG penetration level for the RSE criterion. The proposed evaluation method was applied to the generation expansion plan in Korea for 2029 in order to examine the validity of the existing plan for VG penetration. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to analyze the effects of changes in system uncertainty on VG acceptability. The results show that the planned VG penetration level for 2029 can improve by approximately 12% while securing flexibility.
Highlights
For the few decades, the national renewable energy plan of Korea has been outlined in the second basic energy plan, fourth new and renewable energy basic plan, and seventh basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand [1,2,3]
The ramping capability shortage expectation (RSE) helps quantify the effects of variable generation (VG) penetration level on flexibility
This study proposed a flexibility-based evaluation method for VG acceptability
Summary
For the few decades, the national renewable energy plan of Korea has been outlined in the second basic energy plan (every five years), fourth new and renewable energy basic plan (every five years), and seventh basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand [1,2,3]. The expansion of photovoltaic (PV) and wind power systems is considered as a core strategy to implement these plans. Their installed capacity is expected to account for approximately 75% of total installed capacity in 2029 [3]. To cope with the challenges of supplying sustainable energy, renewable energy implementation plans in Korea emphasize variable generation (VG) through PV and wind power systems, other renewable resources will be included. This study proposes a flexibility-based evaluation method for VG acceptability. In this method, major system uncertainties, such as FOPP and VG forecast error, are considered in the flexibility calculation.
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