Abstract
The current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting different countries in different ways. The assortment of reporting techniques alongside other issues, such as underreporting and budgetary constraints, makes predicting the spread and lethality of the virus a challenging task. This work attempts to gain a better understanding of how COVID-19 will affect one of the least studied countries, namely Brazil. Currently, several Brazilian states are in a state of lock-down. However, there is political pressure for this type of measures to be lifted. This work considers the impact that such a termination would have on how the virus evolves locally. This was done by extending the SEIR model with an on / off strategy. Given the simplicity of SEIR we also attempted to gain more insight by developing a neural regressor. We chose to employ features that current clinical studies have pinpointed has having a connection to the lethality of COVID-19. We discuss how this data can be processed in order to obtain a robust assessment.
Highlights
1 Introduction The Coronavirus Disease 2019, whose aetiological agent is known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [1], has been dubbed COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO)
Given the reliability issues related to the reported data, there is no consensus over the mortality rates associated to COVID-19 (e.g., [10])
Can public trust in civil servants affect the epidemic? Given the current set of Brazilian public policies aiming at mitigation, how will this affect the local spread of COVID-19? What would be the effects of more relaxed non-pharmaceutical measures? Sect. 3 exploits these questions by proposing carefully designed quarantine strategies based on the availability of hospitalisation beds and evaluating these strategies in the long-term by means of a traditional SEIR epidemic model
Summary
The Coronavirus Disease 2019, whose aetiological agent is known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [1], has been dubbed COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Given the current set of Brazilian public policies aiming at mitigation, how will this affect the local spread of COVID-19?
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