Flash flood susceptibility modelling using geomorphometric approach in the Ushairy Basin, eastern Hindu Kush

Abstract

This study focuses on flash flood susceptibility modelling using geomorphometric ranking approach in the Ushairy Basin. In the study area, flash floods are highly unpredictable and the worst hydrometeorological disaster. An advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer global digital elevation model was used as input data in a geographic information system environment to delineate the target basin. A total of 17 sub-basins were delimited using a threshold of $$4 \hbox {km}^{2}$$ . The attribute information of each sub-basin was analysed to compute the geomorphometric parameters by applying Hortonian and Strahler geomorphological models. The results were analysed and categorised into five classes using statistical techniques, and the rank score was assigned to each class of all parameters depending on their relation with flash flood risk. In this study, 16 parameters were analysed to quantify the geomorphometric number of each sub-basin depicting the degree of flash flood susceptibility. The geomorphometric number of each sub-basin was linked to the geo-database for spatial visualisation. The analysis reveals that extremely high, very high, high and moderate sub-basins susceptible to flash floods were spread over an area of 55%, 8.5%, 23.7%, and 11.5%, respectively. It was found that out of total settlements, 53% are located in the extremely highly and very highly susceptible sub-basins. In the study area, the upper reaches are characterised by snow-covered peaks, steep slopes and high drainage densities ( $${>}1.7 \hbox { km/km}^{2})$$ . The analysis further indicated that the flash flood susceptibility increases with the increase in area, relief and relief ratio of the sub-basins. Model accuracy was assessed using primary data regarding past flood damages and human fatalities. Similarly, socio-demographic conditions of each sub-basin were also compared and linked to the extent of flash flood susceptibility. This study may assist the district government and district disaster management authority of Dir upper to initiate flood risk reduction strategies in highly susceptible zones of the Ushairy Basin.