Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sinai, Egypt Using Hydromorphic Data, Principal Component Analysis and Logistic Regression

Abstract

Flash floods in the Sinai often cause significant damage to infrastructure and even loss of life. In this study, the susceptibility to flash flooding is determined using hydro-morphometric characteristics of the catchments. Basins and their hydro-morphometric features are derived from a digital elevation model from NASA Earthdata. Principal component analysis is used to identify principal components with a clear physical meaning that explains most of the variation in the data. The probability of flash flooding is estimated by logistic regression using the principal components as predictors and by fitting the model to flash flood observations. The model prediction results are cross validated. The logistic model is used to classify Sinai basins into four classes: low, moderate, high and very high susceptibility to flash flooding. The map indicating the susceptibility to flash flooding in Sinai shows that the large basins in the mountain ranges of the southern Sinai have a very high susceptibility for flash flooding, several basins in the southwest Sinai have a high or moderate susceptibility to flash flooding, some sub-basins of wadi El-Arish in the center have a high susceptibility to flash flooding, while smaller to medium-sized basins in flatter areas in the center and north usually have a moderate or low susceptibility to flash flooding. These results are consistent with observations of flash floods that occurred in different regions of the Sinai and with the findings or predictions of other studies.