Flash flood forecasting within the PREVIEW project: value of high-resolution hydrometeorological coupled forecast

Abstract

PREVIEW is an European Commission FP6 Integrated Project which aims at developing, on an European level, new geo-information services for natural and industrial risk management. The work package WP4340 focuses on forecast of Mediterranean flash floods. Phase 1 was devoted to the assessment of the usefulness of kilometric scale atmospheric model forecast for hydrological applications and to the development of hydro-meteorological coupled systems based on high-resolution atmospheric models and hydrological models able to reproduce the hydrological behaviour of Mediterranean catchments. Four high-resolution models at 2–3 km resolution have been run on five flash-flood cases over the French Cevennes-Vivarais and Italian Piedmont regions; models are MM5 (by NOA), COSMO-2 (by MeteoSwiss), MESO-NH (by Meteo-France) and COSMO-LAMI (by Arpa Piemonte). To investigate the benefit of coupling atmospheric and hydrological models, the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) have been verified against observations using both classical and categorical statistical scores, while the sensitivity of the QPF to the model initial conditions has been also examined. In addition, the various hourly precipitation forecasts were supplied as input to hydrological models to evaluate through the simulated discharges the value of high resolution forecasts for hydrological forecast purposes. Clearly the hydrological verification conclusions differ from the QPF verification ones and show the usefulness of developing such hydrological verification as the one performed here.