Flash drought monitoring using diurnal-provided evaporative demand drought index

Abstract

Flash drought, as a relatively new concept, represents a rapidly evolving drought with sudden onset, short-term duration, and great destructiveness. With the warming of the planet in recent decades, the frequent occurrences of flash droughts have resulted in considerable losses to personnel and properties on a global scale. Nowadays, the emerging Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) has revealed its significant potential and adaptability in the early warning and quantification of flash droughts. In this study, an advanced method for improving the accuracy and temporal resolution of EDDI is proposed. The new set of EDDI estimates is calculated using diurnal-provided potential evapotranspiration values that have been calibrated with weather parameters and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) atmospheric products. Then, the monitoring performances of flash droughts resulting from the diurnal-provided EDDIs are evaluated over the period 2010–2021 in Hong Kong. Results showed that the Probability Of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Rate (FAR) were 87.1 % and 16.7 %, respectively. By comparing with their counterparts obtained from the use of monthly EDDIs, it was found that the improvements made by the new method in the metrics of POD and FAR were 24.6 % and 11.2 %, respectively. In addition, with the use of diurnal-provided EDDI, the mean lead time for flash drought detection has been prolonged to 37.74 days, offering more time to prevent and mitigate the detrimental effects brought by flash drought events.