Five Year Survival in Medicare Patients Undergoing Interventions for Peripheral Arterial Disease: a Retrospective Cohort Analysis of Linked Registry Claims Data

Abstract

To justify upfront risks of offering elective interventions for intermittent claudication (IC), patients should have reasonable life expectancy to derive durable clinical benefits. Open surgery for chronic limb threatening ischaemia (CLTI) is maximally beneficial in patients surviving ≥ 2 years. Our goal was to assess long term survival after IC and CLTI interventions. In a retrospective cohort analysis, the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) registry from 1 January 2010 to 31 May 2021 was queried for peripheral vascular intervention (PVI), infra-inguinal bypasses (IIB), and supra-inguinal bypasses (SIB) for IC and CLTI across 286 US centres. VQI linkage to Medicare insurance claims provided 5 year survival data. Multivariable analysis identified factors associated with 5 year mortality. There were 31 457 PVIs (44.7% IC, 55.3% CLTI), 7 978 IIBs (26.9% IC, 73.1% CLTI), and 2 149 SIBs (50.1% IC, 49.9% CLTI) recorded in the VQI. Among PVI, IIB, and SIB cohorts, average ages were 75, 73, and 72 years, respectively. Respective 5 year mortality after PVI for IC and CLTI was 37.2% and 71.1%; after IIB for IC and CLTI it was 37.8% and 60%; and after SIB for IC and CLTI it was 33.8% and 53.8%. On multivariable analysis, across all procedures, end-stage renal disease, CLTI, congestive heart failure, anaemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and prior amputation were independently associated with increased mortality. Pre-admission home living and pre-operative aspirin use were independently associated with decreased mortality. Long term survival in Medicare patients undergoing interventions in VQI centres for peripheral arterial disease is poor. Two thirds of CLTI patients and over one third of IC patients were not alive at 5 years. Intervening for IC in patients with high mortality risk should be avoided. For CLTI patients identified with decreased survival likelihood, intervention durability may be less important than invasiveness. Pre-operative medical optimisation should always be undertaken.