Fitting Knock-on Delay Duration Distributions using High-Speed Train Operation Records

Abstract

Delay distribution models are helpful in real-time train dispatching. These models can aid dispatchers to estimate the probability of delay duration and better manage train delays in practice. In this paper, based on the actual train operation records at Xiamen-Shenzhen high-speed railway (HSR) from April 2015 to October 2016, the number of knock-on delay (KD) trains and the number of arrival trains were counted. The statistical result demonstrated the train frequency affected the KD train frequency to some extent. The statistical method was used to establish the knock-on delay duration distribution (KDDD) model. The five common distribution models fitted KDDDs at peak hours and off-peak hours at four stations. The maximum likelihood estimate obtained the parameters of the five theoretical distributions. The log-normal distribution fitted the KDDDs best at both periods and four stations according to the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test result. The probability of knock-on delay duration was calculated, and the result indicated the probability of knock-on delay duration in (1,5) min were the maximum, and those at peak hours were more than those at off-peak hours at Huizhou South and Houmen.