Fitting Atmosphere Temperature of 20th Century in 49 European Capitals using Random Walk Model

Abstract

The 20th century has been witnessed with the rise of global temperature due to CO2 emission since the industrial revolution. The global warming is observed around the world, and the governments take measures to reduce CO2 emission to combat the rise of temperature. The temperature profile has been mainly modelled at global level. Yet, it necessarily models the temperature in cities because each city would have its own feature. Among various models to fit or simulate the temperature, the application of random walk model is rare. In this study, we used the random walk model to fit the temperature of the 21th century in 49 European capitals not only because the industrial revolution first appeared in Europe but also European governments commit and endorse the Paris Agreement. First, the yearly temperature was simplified as increase (+1) or decrease (–1) in comparison with previous year, whose addition in the 20th century in each of 49 European capitals construct a step-typed curve. Second, random walk model was used to fit these step-typed curves with the least squared method. Third, the widely used CRUTEM3 temperature in the 20th century in each of 49 European capitals was directly fitted using random walk. The results show that random walk can fit the step-typed curves and CRUTEM3 temperature.