Fitting and Forecasting of Trend Models for the HYV Boro Yields of Dinajpur District

Abstract

Bangladesh is a densely populated country and the main food of the country is rice. Although theHigh Yielding Variety (HYV) Bro rice is being cultivated in almost all areas of Bangladesh it isenormously cultivated in Dinajpur district of Bangladesh. Trend is very important to know the HYVBoro rice yields of the country. Hence the objective of this research is to fit and forecast of trend modelsof HYV Bro rice yields of Dinajpur district for the year from 1971 to 2007. The regression diagnosticsrevealed in this study indicate that the data is autocorrelated. Hence the Cochrane-Orcutt method wasemployed to fit such data set. Finally, we forecasted the yields of the three trend models for HYV Bororice yields of Dinajpur up to 2021. On basis of the regression diagnostics, the quadratic trend model is anappropriate model for this data set and in this model would be useful for the decision makers for theiragriculture and food policy formulation.