Abstract
Poverty is one of the main problems in economic development and is considered to be a variable to measure the success of the economic development of a region. This study is limited to the analysis and determination of the best forecasting statistical model for the variable poverty rate in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province area based on R Square, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) assessments. This study uses the Exponential Smoothing forecasting method which emphasizes the procedure of continuous improvement of the latest observation objects which hopefully can provide the appropriate results. In general, the double exponential smoothing model from Holt's is the best projection model compared to other exponential smoothing models for projecting poverty data in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province with historical data for 2002-2018 with an increase in projections in 2019 of 0.37 % with Upper Criteria Limit (UCL) of 1.07% and Lower Criteria Limit (LCL) of -0.33% with a value of R Square of 0.627 which means that the independent variable can explain the variance of the dependent variable of 62.7% of this model, and the value of RMSE is 0.328 and MAPE is 22.162. The results of this model when compared to other models have relatively larger R Squared values ??and smaller RMSE and MAPE values.
Highlights
Poverty is one of the main problems in economic development and is considered to be a variable to measure the success of the economic development of a region
Dalam melakukan pemilihan model proyeksi yang terbaik, masih banyak kriteria lain yang bisa dijadikan pertimbangan dalam membuat keputusan, tidak hanya berdasarkan kriteria nilai R Squared, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) saja
Improving time series forecasting: An approach combining bootstrap aggregation, clusters and exponential smoothing
Summary
Kemiskinan merupakan salah satu komponen atau variabel yang dianggap menjadi tolak ukur keberhasilan pembangunan ekonomi suatu wilayah. Gambaran kemiskinan di Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung dalam kurun waktu 3 tahun yaitu Tahun 2014 sebesar 67,20 ribu jiwa; Tahun 2015 sebesar 74,09 ribu jiwa dan Tahun 2016 sebesar 72,76 ribu jiwa, tentunya hal ini juga menjadi perhatian bagi kita semua agar angka yang tertera tersebut perlahan-lahan dapat diatasi dengan menekan jumlah kemiskinan. Salah satu caranya adalah dengan mengetahui gambaran forecast atau hasil ramalan yang diperoleh dari variabel ini agar segera bisa dilakukan tindakan yang bersifat preventif. Metode forecasting dari variabel angka kemiskinan Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung dengan menggunakan metode Exponential Smoothing diharapkan dapat memberikan gambaran mengenai pertumbuhan ekonomi dan sejauh mana kondisi angka kemiskinan di wilayah Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung. Berdasarkan ilustrasi diatas, maka perlu dilakukan peramalan (forecasting) terhadap variabel angka kemiskinan di Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung demi terciptanya hasil prediksi yang cukup mewakili mengenai arah masa depan dari peristiwa-peristiwa ekonomi
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