Fishing games under climate variability: transboundary management of Pacific sardine in the California Current System

Abstract

Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) is a transboundary fish stock exploited by Mexican, US and Canadian fisheries that exhibits extreme fluctuations in its abundance and geographic distribution corresponding to water temperature regime shifts within the California Current Ecosystem. In this study, we develop a three-agent game theoretic-bioeconomic model of the Pacific sardine stock’s abundance and biomass distribution that accounts for decadal-scale climate change. Simulations were conducted to evaluate economic and conservation outcomes of full and partial cooperative and non-cooperative transboundary management of Pacific sardine fishing under different climate change scenarios. The results suggest the following: (1) full cooperative management by the three countries is necessary to achieve sustainable fisheries; and (2) unilateral efforts to maximize conservation and management benefits would not be successful with climate change.