Fish Catches and Long-Term Tidal Cycles in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries: A Nonlinear Regression Approach

Abstract

Selected long-term fisheries catch data from the New England – Fundy area and the Grand Banks were examined for concordance between changes in fish catches and the 18.6-yr nodal cycle of the tides using a nonlinear regression model. Significant positive correlations were found for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus harengus), and scallop (Placopecten magellanicus), with lag times that are biologically appropriate for the time from hatching to recruitment into the fishery. A significant negative correlation with the nodal cycle was evident for Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), for which this area constitutes the most northerly part of its range. Cod catches on the Grand Banks showed no correlation with the nodal cycle. It is suggested that the correlations between the nodal cycle and the changes in fish catches are caused by correlated changes either in sea surface temperature or in productivity resulting from changes in the degree of vertical mixing.