Abstract
This research provides a systematic basis for thinking about a global, as opposed to individual, fishery collapse through both empirical and theoretical review of the evidence for and against thinking about fisheries as a global complex system. One central question is whether or not global fisheries can be described as a panarchy, or a hierarchy of complex systems. The literature reviewed indicate that we can conceptualize fisheries this way, and therefore the world fisheries theoretically can be expected to work through the four cycles, including collapse, and the direction of world fish catch are in decline. Such decline implies that the population curve of global fisheries may be in nearing a tipping point. The stakes are obviously high because fish provide a very important source of food, but wild fishery catch is not expected to keep up with demand threatening the world's poor food security (Godfray et al., 2010, Kent, 1997, Pauly et al., 2005). One analysis in ICES Journal of Marine Science, explains that the production of fish must increase by 50% to meet expected demands for food (Pauly and Palomares, 2005), though affluent countries have been able to and will continue to be able to (to lesser and lesser degrees) substitute lost local fisheries for imports(Pauly et al., 2005, Jacques, 2006). Of course, fish are also a vital source of revenue and jobs in direct landings that value between $80-$85 billion annually (Willman et al., 2008); and, economic impact beyond just landings including indirect and induced economic impact, world fisheries produce $225 to $240 billion annually (Dyck and Sumaila, 2010)-- even though over half of the landed value is lost due to mismanagement(Arnason, 2011). Finally, fish and fishing play a crucial role in human meaning and culture and have done so since the very old coastal cultures (Jacques, 2009). The notions here are explicitly inter-disciplinary and are carried out under the auspices of "social oceanography"—or the study of integrated social-marine systems(Jacques, 2010). This interdisciplinarity is essential for the question at hand because the direction of the world's fisheries are deeply tied to the biophysical conditions of the ocean and fish, and the behavior and context of human activity—and not just fishing.
Highlights
This paper questions whether or not it makes sense to conceptualize global fisheries as a global complex system—are global fisheries a nested, hierarchical complex system, or a panarchy (Gunderson and Holling, 2002) and if so, what are the directions of important variables in this hypothetical system? Complex systems are sometimes related to the idea of chaos, where there are so many variables that there appears to be no order except post hoc, and if fisheries are complex systems, global or not, it will take planning and prudence if the inevitable changes are to be more surprises and less crises (Berkes et al, 1998, Folke, 2006, Folke et al, 2004, Scheffer et al, 2001, Walker et al, 2006)
The stakes are obviously high because fish provide a very important source of food, but the wild fish catch is not expected to keep up with demand, threatening food security for the world’s poorest peoples (Godfray et al, 2010, Kent, 1997, Pauly et al, 2005, Coulthard et al, 2011)
What do we know and how do these factors affect the potential for global fishery collapse? We can surmise that global fisheries could potentially be a nested panarchy
Summary
This paper questions whether or not it makes sense to conceptualize global fisheries as a global complex system—are global fisheries a nested, hierarchical complex system, or a panarchy (Gunderson and Holling, 2002) and if so, what are the directions of important variables in this hypothetical system? Complex systems are sometimes related to the idea of chaos, where there are so many variables that there appears to be no order except post hoc, and if fisheries are complex systems, global or not, it will take planning and prudence if the inevitable changes are to be more surprises and less crises (Berkes et al, 1998, Folke, 2006, Folke et al, 2004, Scheffer et al, 2001, Walker et al, 2006). 2 panarchy, and part two addresses the “social oceanography” of such a system that include issues like the political economic history, the changes to fishing fleet structures, policy, and similar pressures and adaptation that must be considered in any fishery research because a fishery is itself a network of social effort to catch part of a fish population. The answer to this question is important because if fisheries are plausibly a globally interconnected complex system, it is theoretically plausible, if not likely at some unpredictable time, for a global collapse event that could unfold quickly, such as over a decadal time period. The question is—what are the important variables that affect fisheries at the global level to either make them more vulnerable or resilient?
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